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Quantitative estimation of uncertainty in human risk analysis
G Sassi1, A Magnetti Vernai, B Ruggeri
1Dipartimento di Scienza dei Materiali e Ingegneria Chimica, Politecnico di Torino, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi, 24, 10129 Torino, Italy. guido.sassi@polito.it
Journal of Hazardous Materials
|December 19, 2006
Summary
This study applies the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) standard to quantify uncertainty in human risk assessment from chemical exposure. The GUM procedure simplifies uncertainty evaluation and identifies key contributing variables for accurate risk management.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Health
- Risk Assessment
- Measurement Science
Background:
- Accurate human risk estimation for chronic chemical exposure is crucial for public health.
- Quantifying uncertainty in risk assessment is essential for reliable decision-making.
- Existing methods for risk evaluation require robust uncertainty analysis.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the applicability of the ISO standard (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, GUM) for quantitative uncertainty assessment in human risk estimation.
- To detail procedures for uncertainty evaluation in both deterministic (reasonable maximum exposure, RME) and statistical (Monte Carlo) risk assessment methods.
- To demonstrate the GUM procedure's ability to identify key uncertainty contributors.
Main Methods:
- Application of the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) standard.
- Utilized deterministic reasonable maximum exposure (RME) methodology.
- Employed statistical Monte Carlo method for risk evaluation.
- Detailed uncertainty evaluation procedures for both methodologies.
Main Results:
- The GUM procedure effectively quantifies uncertainty in human risk estimation.
- The methodology successfully identifies variables with the most significant impact on uncertainty.
- The application of GUM was found to be easy and straightforward.
- Risk estimation for dioxin-contaminated milk ingestion exceeded the 10(-6) threshold with 20-80% confidence.
Conclusions:
- The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) provides a practical and effective framework for uncertainty quantification in human risk assessment.
- This approach enhances the reliability of risk estimates, particularly under chronic exposure scenarios.
- The GUM procedure aids in pinpointing critical factors influencing risk, facilitating targeted risk management strategies.
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