Measuring the stability of illicit drug markets: why does it matter?

Contemporary drug policy in the United States favors a balanced approach including a supply side dimension. The supply side dimension is grounded in the assumption that the disruption of illicit drug markets will result in diminished capacity of the markets to provide for consumer demand and thereby a reduction in the use of illicit drugs and a related increase in demand for treatment. In this paper we consider the disruption of methamphetamine markets in 10 cities in terms of the relative stability of those markets. We use data from the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program for the years 2000-2003. We conduct a comparative analysis of those markets and look at patterns of methamphetamine use and participation in treatment in those cities. Our findings demonstrate how it is possible to construct measures of market stability, and how to use those measures to assess the stability of illicit drug markets in terms of both relative value and in fluctuation over time. We also demonstrate that markets with different patterns of stability will exhibit different patterns of drug using and treatment participation. We conclude that understanding patterns of market stability will help us to understand and respond to patterns of drug using and treatment participation.