Prediction of recurrence after laparoscopic fundoplication for erosive reflux esophagitis based on...

The usefulness of the anatomy-function-pathology (AFP) score was examined to evaluate its prediction of recurrence after laparoscopic fundoplication for erosive reflux esophagitis.

Of the patients undergoing laparoscopic fundoplication for erosive reflux esophagitis of Los Angeles classification grade A or higher from December 1994 to December 2004, 107 who underwent preoperative barium esophagogram, pH monitoring, and endoscopy were selected as subjects. The AFP score was calculated by A, F, and P factor grades of the AFP classification. By comparing patients with and without recurrence, the usefulness of the AFP score for predicting recurrence was examined.

Reflux esophagitis recurred in seven patients. No significant difference in age, sex, or A or F factor was observed between the groups, whereas a significant difference was observed in the P factor (p = 0.008). On the other hand, the mean AFP score in the recurrence group was 16.9 +/- 5.3, whereas that in the nonrecurrence group was 8.9 +/- 5.3 (p = 0.0021). Among the patients with a score of 17 points or more (n = 23), recurrence was found in 6 patients (26%). On the other hand, among the patients with a score lower than 17 points (n = 84), recurrence was found in 1 patient, but not in the remaining 83 patients (1%). Sensitivity was thus 85.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 42.1-99.6), and specificity was 83% (95% CI, 74.2-89.8). The positive predictive value was 26.1% (95% CI, 10.2-48.4), and the negative predictive value was 98.8% (95% CI, 93.5-99.9). Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed, and receiver operating characteristics curves were obtained. The area under the curve for the AFP score was 0.8457, whereas that for the P factor was 0.7907 (p = 0.0045), suggesting that the AFP score may more accurately predict recurrence than the P factor.

The AFP score may be useful for predicting postoperative recurrence. If surgery is performed when the AFP score is lower than 17 points, the likelihood of postoperative recurrence is expected to be very low.