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Climate change: do we know enough for policy action?

Stephen H Schneider1

  • 1Stephen H. Schneider, Woods Institute for the Environment and Department of Biological Sciences, 371 Serra Mall, Gilbert Building, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-5020, USA. shs@Stanford.edu

Science and Engineering Ethics
|January 3, 2007
PubMed
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Climate change requires risk management, not certainty. Understanding probabilities and consequences informs policy to prevent dangerous climate thresholds and ensure long-term sustainability.

Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Risk Assessment
  • Environmental Policy

Background:

  • Climate change presents both certainties and uncertainties, necessitating a risk management approach.
  • The issue transcends normal scientific inquiry, becoming a critical policy debate.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To reframe the climate change debate from absolute costs to relative delay times for achieving emission caps.
  • To emphasize the role of expert probability assessments in risk management decisions.
  • To highlight the long-term implications of current emission handling on future sustainability.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing descriptive science with empirical and theoretical methods to quantify risk factors.
  • Assessing "What can happen?" and "What are the odds?" (Probability x Consequences).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analyzing expert-assigned probabilities for various climate outcomes.

    • Main Results:

    • Even optimistic scenarios predict higher CO2 concentrations and rising temperatures.
    • Sea level rise from thermal expansion and ice melt will occur over extended periods.
    • Current emission management critically influences millennial-scale sustainability.

    Conclusions:

    • Climate change policy should be based on risk assessment, integrating scientific probabilities with value judgments.
    • Reframing the debate around delay times and dangerous thresholds is crucial for effective policymaking.
    • Immediate and near-future emission management decisions have profound, long-lasting impacts on global sustainability.