Nest predation and the evolution of conspecific brood parasitism: from risk spreading to risk assessment

Conspecific brood parasitism (CBP) is a taxonomically widespread reproductive tactic. One of the earliest hypotheses put forward to explain the evolution of CBP was "risk spreading"; that is, by laying eggs in more than one nest, parasites may increase the likelihood that at least one offspring will survive to independence. However, the risk spreading hypothesis, based on the assumptions of random nest predation and random selection of target nests by parasites, was theoretically refuted soon after its appearance. New results from the common goldeneye (Bucephala clangula) have revealed that nests are not predated at random and that parasites preferentially lay in safe nests. By taking into account these findings and by modifying accordingly the basic assumptions of the earlier model that refuted the risk spreading hypothesis, we built a model to address the role of nest predation in the evolution of CBP. Model simulations revealed that the selective advantage of parasitic laying, related to nest predation, is much higher than previously thought. Furthermore, the invasion probability of parasitic tactic when initially rare was reasonably high within our model framework. We show that the use of risk assessing, instead of random risk spreading, makes parasitic laying evolutionarily advantageous.