Predictive model of coronary heart disease in Egypt (a disease with multiple risk factors)

As a multifactorial disease and with the need of primordial prevention coronary heart disease (CHT), a risk scoring system for the prediction of CHD was devised at Community Medicine Department Ain Shams University, Cairo, EGYPT. In this matched case-control study of 119 cases and 121 age and sex matched controls, current cigarette smoking, lack of siesta, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, low occupational physical activity, hypercholesterolemia, marital status, urban residence, level of education, work index, coffee consumption, positive family history, BMI, elevated W/H ratio, low HDL and elevated TC/HDL were studied for association with CHD. The additive risk scoring system based on the results of conditional multiple logistic regression identified the first six factors with statistical weights of 1, 5, 10, 6, 6, 11, respectively. On back validation receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, a total score of 17 was found to be the cut off point above which there was increased risk of CHD. The overall predictive accuracy of this system--equivalent to the area under the ROC curve--was 0.873. Future studies need to assess the risk scoring system in population based studies.