A dynamic model for assessing universal Hepatitis A vaccination in Canada

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Infectious Disease Modeling
• Public Health Policy

Background:

• Hepatitis A virus (HAV) vaccination in Canada is currently limited to high-risk populations.
• Several countries with comparable disease burdens have implemented universal vaccination programs.
• Evaluating alternative vaccination strategies is crucial for optimizing public health outcomes.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess the potential impact of universal Hepatitis A vaccination strategies in Canada.
• To compare the effectiveness of different universal vaccination ages against the current targeted approach.
• To model the long-term effects of vaccination on HAV incidence and mortality.

Main Methods:

• Development of an age-structured compartmental model for HAV transmission and vaccination dynamics.
• Simulation of universal vaccination scenarios at various ages (1, 4, 9, 15 years).
• Comparison of projected outcomes (incidence, mortality) with the existing targeted vaccination strategy over an 80-year period.

Main Results:

• Universal vaccination at age 1 is predicted to reduce HAV incidence by 60% and mortality by 56% compared to targeted vaccination.
• Vaccination at ages 4, 9, and 15 also showed significant reductions in incidence (52%, 36%, 31%) and mortality (45%, 26%, 25%).
• Phasing out targeted vaccination in favor of universal strategies is projected to yield substantial public health benefits.

Conclusions:

• Universal Hepatitis A vaccination, especially initiated at age 1, offers a more effective public health strategy for Canada.
• Modeling suggests significant reductions in disease burden are achievable through broader vaccination coverage.
• Policy considerations should include the potential benefits of transitioning to universal Hepatitis A vaccination.