Five-year predictors of physical activity decline among adults in low-income communities: a prospective study

Obesity in North America is now endemic, and increased understanding of the determinants of physical inactivity is critical. This analysis identified predictors of declines in physical activity over 5 years among adults in low-income, inner-city neighbourhoods.

Data on leisure time physical activity were collected in telephone interviews in 1992 and 1997 from 765 adults (47% of baseline respondents), as part of the evaluation of a community-based cardiovascular disease risk reduction program.

One-third of 527 participants who were physically active at baseline, were inactive in 1997. Predictors of becoming inactive included female sex (OR = 1.63 95% CI (1.09, 2.43)), older age (1.02 (1.01, 1.04)), higher BMI (1.57 (1.03, 2.40)), poor self-rated health (1.39 (1.05, 1.84)), lower self-efficacy for physical activity (1.46 (1.00, 2.14)), and not using a neighborhood facility for physical activity (1.61 (1.02, 2.14)).

These results highlight the fact that a variety of variables play a role in determining activity level, from demographic variables such as age and sex, to psychosocial and environmental variables. In addition, these results highlight the important role that other health-related variables may play in predicting physical activity level, in particular the observed association between baseline BMI and the increased risk of becoming inactive over time. Lastly, these results demonstrate the need for multi-component interventions in low-income communities, which target a range of issues, from psychosocial factors, to features of the physical environment.