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Demonstrating freedom from disease using multiple complex data sources 2: case study--classical swine fever in

P A J Martin1, A R Cameron, K Barfod

  • 1Department of Agriculture and Food, PO Box 1231, Bunbury, Western Australia 6231, Australia. tmartin@agric.wa.gov.au

Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|January 24, 2007
PubMed
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This study applied a quantitative method to evaluate classical swine fever (CSF) surveillance in Denmark. Targeted sampling of adult pigs in South Jutland significantly increased surveillance sensitivity for detecting CSF.

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Epidemiology
  • Disease Surveillance Systems
  • Quantitative Risk Assessment

Background:

  • Classical swine fever (CSF) poses a significant threat to swine populations.
  • Effective surveillance is crucial for maintaining disease freedom and ensuring economic stability in the livestock industry.
  • Previous work established a method for quantitative evaluation of disease freedom surveillance.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To apply quantitative evaluation methods to assess the effectiveness of the Danish abattoir-based surveillance system for classical swine fever (CSF).
  • To model the surveillance system component (SSC) sensitivity incorporating factors like age, location, and disease clustering.
  • To estimate the probability of CSF freedom in Denmark based on surveillance data.

Main Methods:

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  • Utilized a scenario tree model for the abattoir-based serology component of the Danish CSF surveillance system.
  • Analyzed 2005 surveillance data, including 25,332 blood samples from 3,528 herds, all negative for CSF-specific antibodies.
  • Incorporated design prevalences (0.1-1% of herds, 5% of animals in infected herds) and targeted sampling strategies (age, location).

Main Results:

  • Estimated mean monthly SSC sensitivities ranged from 0.18 to 0.86, depending on herd design prevalence.
  • Probabilities of CSF freedom after one year of surveillance reached 0.91 to 1.00.
  • Targeting adult pigs and herds from South Jutland increased surveillance sensitivity by 1.4 to 1.9 times compared to proportional sampling.

Conclusions:

  • The abattoir-based surveillance system, particularly with targeted sampling, demonstrated high effectiveness in achieving and verifying disease freedom for classical swine fever.
  • Quantitative evaluation provides a robust framework for assessing and optimizing national disease surveillance strategies.
  • Targeted surveillance approaches can significantly enhance the sensitivity and efficiency of disease freedom declarations.