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Related Experiment Videos

Equal prior probabilities: can one do any better?

A Biedermann1, F Taroni, P Garbolino

  • 1Ecole des Sciences Criminelles, Institut de Police Scientifique, The University of Lausanne, le Batochime, Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland. alex.biedermann@unil.ch <alex.biedermann@unil.ch>

Forensic Science International
|February 3, 2007
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

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This study critiques the

Area of Science:

  • Forensic Science
  • Probability Theory
  • Legal Evidence

Background:

  • The 'full Bayes' approach' suggests presenting scientific evidence using posterior probabilities.
  • A key recommendation is to assign equal prior probabilities when case-specific information is absent.
  • This practice is often justified by the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To critically evaluate the recommendation of equal prior probabilities in forensic science.
  • To examine the philosophical and mathematical underpinnings of this 'full Bayes' approach'.
  • To propose alternative, more defensible strategies for determining prior probabilities.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of probability calculus and basic mathematical assumptions.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Critique of justifications based on the Principle of Maximum Entropy (PME).
  • Development of an argument for alternative methods of eliciting prior probabilities.

    • Main Results:

    • The philosophical foundations for equal prior probabilities, particularly PME justifications, are highly controversial.
    • Alternative strategies for eliciting prior probabilities are feasible and defensible.
    • These alternatives require subjective judgment on general criminal case issues like evidential relevance and guilt probability.

    Conclusions:

    • Assigning equal prior probabilities in forensic science lacks robust justification.
    • Scientists should not define prior probabilities, as this responsibility lies with the trier of fact.
    • More feasible and defensible strategies for determining prior probabilities exist, but require careful consideration of case specifics.