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Published on: October 25, 2018
Instabilities in multiserotype disease models with antibody-dependent enhancement
Lora Billings1, Ira B Schwartz, Leah B Shaw
1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Montclair State University, Montclair, NJ 07043, USA. billingsl@mail.montclair.edu
Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) can trigger disease outbreaks in multiserotype models. This study identifies conditions for ADE-induced oscillations and analyzes their stability, offering insights into disease dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Biology
- Immunology
Background:
- Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) describes increased viral growth with prior immunity from a different serotype.
- ADE is hypothesized to elevate secondary infection rates and drive disease transmission.
- Understanding ADE's role in multiserotype diseases is crucial for public health.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the complex dynamics caused by ADE in multiserotype disease models.
- To derive approximations for the ADE parameter that initiates oscillations.
- To analyze bifurcations, stability with stochasticity, and the impact of single-serotype vaccination.
Main Methods:
- Development and analysis of mathematical models for multiserotype diseases incorporating ADE.
- Derivation of analytical approximations for oscillation onset related to the ADE parameter.
- Bifurcation analysis to classify oscillation types.
- Introduction of stochastic perturbations to assess dynamic stability.
- Preliminary modeling of single-serotype vaccination strategies.
Main Results:
- ADE can spontaneously induce oscillations (outbreaks) in disease models without external drivers.
- Approximations for the ADE threshold inducing oscillations were derived.
- Analysis revealed distinct types of oscillations and their transitions (bifurcations).
- Stochastic perturbations were found to affect the stability of these oscillatory dynamics.
- Initial vaccination analysis suggests potential modulation of ADE-driven outbreaks.
Conclusions:
- ADE is a significant factor capable of generating endemic disease oscillations in multiserotype contexts.
- The study provides a quantitative framework for understanding ADE-driven outbreaks and their stability.
- Findings highlight the importance of considering ADE in vaccination strategies for diseases with multiple serotypes.
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