On a possible early identification procedure for babies at high risk for autistic spectrum disorder

A hypothesis for a method that may make possible the early identification of neonates at high risk for later development of autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) is set forth. The method is a test of the assertion that unusually high testosterone concentrations in amniotic fluid (TECAFs) are predictive of later ASD diagnoses. The statistical distribution of TECAFS, obtained in the 14-20th week of pregnancy, is used to determine the critical TECAF value above which the highest 2% lie and thus identify the babies at high risk for later ASD syndromes. From presently available data a single numerical value cannot be obtained. However, a critical value calculated from the mean TECAF value of a group of gender identified amniotic fluid samples, which are all assayed by the same technique, and multiples of the standard deviation (SD) of the TECAFs of that group, leads to an estimate of the critical TECAF value. We estimate that this critical value is equal to the mean plus 2.6 times the standard deviation, (m+2.6 SD), of the set of measurements. A rough calculation of the number of neonates that would be needed for a test of this method is discussed.