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Recent network evolution increases the potential for large epidemics in the British cattle population.

S E Robinson1, M G Everett, R M Christley

  • 1Epidemiology Group, Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, University of Liverpool, Leahurst, Neston, Wirral CH64 7TE, UK. s.e.robinson@liv.ac.uk

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Livestock movement restrictions in Great Britain did not reduce cattle contact networks. Despite policies aiming to limit disease spread, the number of connected animal holdings (AH) has grown, potentially increasing epidemic size.

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Area of Science:

  • Veterinary epidemiology
  • Network science
  • Animal health policy

Background:

  • Foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain (GB) in 2001 led to livestock movement restrictions.
  • Mandatory standstill periods were implemented to limit disease spread by reducing contact networks and movements.
  • The impact of behavioral adaptations on the overall network structure and disease transmission potential remained unknown.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the evolution of cattle contact networks in GB following the implementation of movement restrictions.
  • To assess the effectiveness of standstill policies in controlling the spread of infectious diseases in the cattle industry.
  • To apply network theory to understand changes in connectivity and disease exposure.

Main Methods:

  • Construction of weekly cattle contact networks using Great Britain (GB) cattle movement data.
  • Analysis of the giant strong component (GSC) to represent the maximally connected region of the network.
  • Tracking the changes in the size of the GSC over time since the introduction of movement restrictions.

Main Results:

  • The number of animal holdings (AH) participating in the giant strong component (GSC) has shown a linear increase over time.
  • Despite movement restrictions, the core connected component of the cattle network has expanded.
  • This expansion indicates a growing number of holdings potentially exposed to disease.

Conclusions:

  • Emergent behaviors in the cattle industry have led to an increase in network connectivity.
  • The size of the GSC, representing potential disease exposure, has grown, posing a risk to epidemic size.
  • Current movement restrictions may not be sufficient to prevent the expansion of infectious disease epidemics in the cattle population.