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Updated: Jul 17, 2026

Microplot Design and Plant and Soil Sample Preparation for 15Nitrogen Analysis

Microplot Design and Plant and Soil Sample Preparation for ¹⁵Nitrogen Analysis

Published on: May 10, 2020

A forecast analysis on fertilizers consumption worldwide.

WenJun Zhang¹, XiYan Zhang

¹Research Institute of Entomology, School of Life Sciences, Zhongshan University, Guangzhou 510275, People's Republic of China. zhwj@mail.sysu.edu.cn

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment

|February 9, 2007

Summary

Global fertilizer consumption is projected to increase by 32.1% by 2030, driven by population growth. This review forecasts fertilizer production and environmental impact data for decision-making.

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Area of Science:

Agricultural Science
Environmental Science
Population Dynamics

Background:

Fertilizer consumption is intrinsically linked to human population expansion.
Accurate forecasting of fertilizer use is crucial for production planning and environmental impact assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

To review and forecast global fertilizer consumption trends.
To provide essential data for fertilizer production and environmental impact evaluations.
To analyze the relationship between human population growth and fertilizer demand.

Main Methods:

Utilized a univariate linear model (y=a+rx(t)) to fit historical fertilizer consumption data.
Modeled fertilizer consumption based on total human population at year t.
Generated detailed forecasts for fertilizer consumption from 2010 to 2030.

Main Results:

Global per capita consumption of total fertilizers is 34.6 kg, with significant regional variations.
World's total fertilizer consumption is predicted to reach 226,150,381 Mt by 2030, a 32.1% increase.
Asia and Africa show the highest projected increases in fertilizer consumption (54-60%).

Conclusions:

Fertilizer consumption forecasts indicate substantial growth, particularly in Asia and Africa, necessitating adaptive production strategies.
Regional consumption patterns vary, with Europe showing a declining trend.
The study underscores the direct correlation between population dynamics and agricultural input demands.