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Seasonality in six enterically transmitted diseases and ambient temperature.
E N Naumova1, J S Jagai, B Matyas
1Department of Public Health and Family Medicine, Tufts University School of Medicine, Boston, MA 02111, USA. elena.naumova@tufts.edu
Epidemiology and Infection
|February 13, 2007
Summary
This study introduces a new method to analyze disease seasonality, revealing distinct temporal patterns for enteric diseases. The findings highlight how environmental factors like temperature influence disease outbreaks, aiding public health surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Dynamics
- Public Health Surveillance
Background:
- Understanding disease seasonality is crucial for effective public health interventions.
- Previous analyses of temporal disease patterns may obscure important seasonal variations.
- Enterically transmitted diseases (EDs) exhibit complex seasonal trends influenced by environmental factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a framework for systematically assessing disease seasonality.
- To quantify and compare temporal patterns of enterically transmitted diseases.
- To investigate the relationship between disease incidence peaks and ambient temperature.
Main Methods:
- Developed an analytical and conceptual framework for disease seasonality assessment.
- Analyzed 10-year (1992-2001) incidence data for six reportable enterically transmitted diseases in Massachusetts.
- Quantified timing and intensity of seasonal peaks and their synchronization with ambient temperature.
Main Results:
- All analyzed EDs, except hepatitis A, showed distinct seasonal patterns, clustering into two groups.
- Campylobacter and Salmonella peak incidence lagged ambient temperature by 2-14 days.
- Cryptosporidium, Shigella, and Giardia showed a significant delay (approx. 40 days) relative to temperature peaks.
Conclusions:
- The proposed method offers detailed quantification of seasonality, detecting differences missed by cumulative analyses.
- Significant variations in seasonal enteric infection peaks were identified.
- This approach is valuable for generating and testing hypotheses on disease seasonality and transmission routes linked to environmental factors.
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