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The Bayesian "star paradox" persists for long finite sequences.
Mike Steel1, Frederick A Matsen
1Biomathematics Research Centre, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand. m.steel@math.canterbury.ac.nz
Molecular Biology and Evolution
|February 15, 2007
Summary
The star paradox in phylogenetics shows resolved trees can be supported by unresolved data. This study mathematically proves this phenomenon persists even with very long sequences, refuting claims otherwise.
Area of Science:
- Phylogenetics
- Computational Biology
- Evolutionary Biology
Background:
- The "star paradox" describes how phylogenetic trees can appear resolved despite data originating from an unresolved "star" tree.
- Conflicting viewpoints exist regarding whether this paradox persists with increasing sequence lengths.
Purpose of the Study:
- To mathematically resolve the debate on whether the star paradox in phylogenetics persists with very long sequences.
- To provide a definitive answer on the statistical behavior of phylogenetic inference under specific conditions.
Main Methods:
- Mathematical proof.
- Analysis of statistical properties of phylogenetic tree reconstruction algorithms.
- Asymptotic analysis of sequence length effects.
Main Results:
- The probability of a resolved tree being strongly supported by data from a star tree remains strictly positive.
- This probability does not diminish to zero even as sequence lengths approach infinity.
Conclusions:
- The star paradox is a persistent phenomenon in phylogenetics, irrespective of sequence length.
- Mathematical evidence confirms that resolved trees can be spuriously supported even with extensive sequence data.
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