[On the relationship between age and prevalence and/or incidence of primary open-angle glaucoma in the...

It is the aim of this study to describe both the relationship between age and prevalence as well as age and 5-year incidence of primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) for a homogeneous population cohort. The result of the regression model for the prevalence are compared with the models of Tuck-Crick and Quigley-Vitale. In addition, estimations for the number of 5-year incidence cases of POAG are provided for individuals at the age of 40-80 years in Austria for the years in 2001-2006, 2010-2015, 2020-2025 and 2030-2035.

The "Salzburg Moorfields Collaborative Glaucoma Study" (SMCGS) is embedded in a government-supported glaucoma blindness prevention programme in Salzburg county, Austria, which is designed for a screening and follow-up period of at least 10 years. Each subject receives a complete ophthalmological examination. In total, the findings of 853 subjects are analysed and evaluated applying the guidelines of the European glaucoma society.

The results of the regression analysis for the prevalences are in good agreement with the models of Tuck-Crick and Quigley-Vitale. The best correlation was found for individuals between 40 and 80 years of age. The 5-year incidences increase is statistically significant (p < 0.001) with increasing age: the 5-year incidences of individuals at the age of 40, 50, 60, 70 and 80 years are 0.07 % (95 % confidence interval: 0.005 - 0.9 %), 0.2 % (0.04 - 1.2 %), 0.7 % (0.3 - 1.9 %), 2.3 % (1 - 5.2 %) and 6.9 % (1.7 - 24.0 %), respectively.

The age-dependent prevalences in this glaucoma screening program are in good agreement with the regression models of Tuck-Crick and Quigley-Vitale, especially in the age range of 40 - 80 years. The model for the 5-year incidences describes the tight relationship between age and 5-year risk for POAG. We estimate the number of new POAG cases in Austria in 2001-2006, 2010-2015, 2020-2025 and 2030-2035 at the age between 40 and 80 years to reach 49 100, 52 100, 62 000 and 69 600 patients, respectively.