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Updated: Jul 16, 2026

Establishment and Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model for Pathological Escalation of Gastric Low-Grade Intraepithelial Neoplasia
Published on: February 16, 2024
Meta-analysis: cancer risk of low-grade dysplasia in chronic ulcerative colitis
T Thomas1, K A Abrams, R J Robinson
1Department of Gastroenterology, Digestive Diseases Centre, Leicester General Hospital, Gwendolen Road, Leicester, LE4 5PW, UK.
Background:
The cancer risk of low-grade dysplasia (LGD) in chronic ulcerative colitis is variable and its management remain contentious.
Aim:
To determine the risk of cancer or any advanced lesion once LGD is diagnosed.
Methods:
A MEDLINE, EMBASE and Pub Med search was conducted using the key words 'surveillance', 'colorectal cancer', 'low-grade dysplasia' and 'ulcerative colitis'. A random effects model of meta-analysis was used.
Results:
Twenty surveillance studies had 508 flat LGD or LGD with dysplasia-associated lesion or mass. An average of 4.3 colonoscopies was performed/patient post-LGD diagnosis (range: 3-7.6). An average of 18 biopsies taken per colonoscopy (range: 9-24) detected 73 advanced lesions (cancer or high-grade dysplasia) pre-operatively. The cancer incidence was 14 of 1000 (95% CI: 5.0-34) person years duration (pyd) and the incidence of any advanced lesion was 30 of 1000 pyd (95% CI: 12-76). When LGD is detected on surveillance there is a ninefold risk of developing cancer (OR: 9.0, 95% CI: 4.0-20.5) and 12-fold risk of developing any advanced lesion (OR: 11.9, 95% CI: 5.2-27).
Conclusions:
The risk of developing cancer in patients with LGD is high. These estimates are valuable for decision-making when LGD is encountered on surveillance.
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