Leptin predicts the development of diabetes in Mauritian men, but not women: a population-based study

To determine if levels of the adipocyte-derived hormone, leptin, predict the development of type 2 diabetes.

Population-based surveys were undertaken in the multiethnic nation of Mauritius in 1987, 1992 and 1998. Questionnaires, anthropometric measurements, and a 2-h 75-g oral glucose tolerance test were included. A cohort of 2330 participants who were free of diabetes, aged 25-79 years in 1987, and who were followed-up in 1992 and 1998 was studied. Serum leptin was measured in baseline samples. Glucose tolerance was classified according to WHO (World Health Organization) 1999 criteria.

In total, 456 subjects developed diabetes over 11 years with similar incidences in all ethnic groups (P=0.2). Baseline leptin correlated positively with anthropometric measurements, fasting and postload insulin and homeostasis model assessment indices (all P<0.001), and inversely with subsequent weight increase. Participants with incident diabetes had higher serum levels of leptin at baseline than those remaining nondiabetic (P<0.001). After adjustment for confounders, high leptin levels and high leptin/body mass index ratio were independently associated with incident diabetes over 11 years in men (odds ratio for top versus bottom quartile of leptin 2.18; 95% CI: 1.09-4.35), but not in women.

We conclude that high leptin levels are associated with the future development of diabetes, and the association is independent of other factors in men, but not in women.