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Hurricane intensity and eyewall replacement.

Robert A Houze1, Shuyi S Chen, Bradley F Smull

  • 1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1640, USA. houze@atmos.washington.edu

Science (New York, N.Y.)
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Eyewall replacement in hurricanes involves a new eyewall forming and replacing the old one, impacting storm intensity. Understanding the "moat" region is key to improving hurricane intensity forecasts.

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Area of Science:

  • Meteorology
  • Tropical Cyclone Dynamics

Background:

  • Hurricane intensity forecasting is challenging.
  • Eyewall replacement is a known phenomenon but poorly understood.
  • The "moat" region's role in eyewall replacement was unclear.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the processes occurring in the moat during eyewall replacement.
  • To understand how these processes affect hurricane intensity.
  • To improve hurricane intensity forecasting models.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of aircraft data from the 2005 hurricane season.
  • Observation of eyewall replacement events.
  • Dynamic analysis of the moat region.

Main Results:

  • The moat region becomes dynamically similar to the eye during eyewall replacement.
  • This transformation makes the moat inhospitable to the inner eyewall.
  • New eyewalls initially have weaker winds but reintensify as they contract.

Conclusions:

  • The moat's transformation is a critical factor in eyewall replacement.
  • Understanding moat dynamics can improve hurricane intensity forecasts.
  • Integrating aircraft data into high-resolution numerical models is recommended for better forecasting.