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Published on: December 7, 2021
Partially mixed household epidemiological model with clustered resistant individuals
David E Hiebeler1, Amanda Keck Criner
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, 333 Neville Hall, University of Maine, Orono, Maine 04469-5752, USA. hiebeler@math.umaine.edu
Household resistance variability significantly accelerates infectious disease spread and increases endemic levels. This occurs even with random resistance distribution, and spatial clustering further impacts disease dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Population Dynamics
Background:
- Infectious disease transmission is influenced by population structure and individual immunity.
- Understanding how heterogeneity in resistance impacts disease spread is crucial for public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of varying resistance levels across households on infectious disease dynamics.
- To analyze how population stratification into resistant and non-resistant individuals affects disease spread and equilibrium levels.
Main Methods:
- Mathematical modeling of disease spread within a structured population.
- Analysis of disease dynamics considering household partitioning and individual resistance.
- Utilizing an improved mean-field approximation to incorporate spatial clustering effects.
Main Results:
- Variability in household resistance levels enhances the initial rate of infection spread.
- Increased resistance heterogeneity leads to a higher infection level at the endemic equilibrium.
- Spatial clustering of resistant individuals also influences and predicts disease dynamics.
Conclusions:
- Heterogeneity in resistance at the household level is a critical factor in infectious disease dynamics.
- Interventions should consider the spatial distribution and clustering of resistance within populations.
- Mathematical models incorporating population structure are essential for accurate disease spread prediction.
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