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Evaluating molecular clock calibrations using Bayesian analyses with soft and hard bounds.

Kate L Sanders1, Michael S Y Lee

  • 1School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Adelaide, Darling Building, Adelaide, Australia 5005. kate.sanders@adelaide.edu.au

Biology Letters
|March 17, 2007
PubMed
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Molecular dating relies on accurate fossil calibrations. This study introduces a Bayesian method to evaluate calibration accuracy, finding the bird-crocodile calibration reliable but the bird-lizard calibration too recent for molecular clock studies.

Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary Biology
  • Paleontology
  • Computational Biology

Background:

  • Molecular dating studies are crucial for understanding evolutionary timelines.
  • A key challenge in molecular dating is the availability and accuracy of calibration points derived from fossils.
  • Existing methods for selecting calibrations often oversimplify their reliability, treating them as strictly correct or incorrect.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a Bayesian relaxed clock approach for evaluating the accuracy of multiple fossil calibrations simultaneously.
  • To assess the reliability of two recently proposed vertebrate calibration points: bird-crocodile and bird-lizard divergences.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Bayesian relaxed clock analysis, incorporating numerous candidate calibrations as prior probabilities.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Evaluated the impact of calibration priors on posterior estimates, allowing for assessment of individual calibration accuracy.
  • Tested specific proposed fossil calibrations within vertebrate evolution.

    • Main Results:

    • The proposed bird-crocodile calibration, estimated at approximately 247 million years ago, was found to be accurate.
    • The proposed bird-lizard calibration, dated at approximately 255 million years ago, was determined to be substantially too recent.
    • The Bayesian approach effectively distinguished between reliable and unreliable calibration priors.

    Conclusions:

    • Bayesian relaxed clock analysis provides a robust framework for assessing the continuum of accuracy in fossil calibrations.
    • The bird-crocodile calibration is supported for use in molecular dating studies of vertebrates.
    • The bird-lizard calibration requires re-evaluation or exclusion in molecular clock analyses due to its inaccuracy.