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Perspectives on the Arctic's shrinking sea-ice cover
Mark C Serreze1, Marika M Holland, Julienne Stroeve
1Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Campus Box 449, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0449, USA. serreze@kryos.colorado.edu
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|March 17, 2007
Summary
Arctic sea ice extent shows negative trends from 1979-2006, driven by natural variability and greenhouse gas emissions. This Arctic ice loss may accelerate, impacting global climate patterns.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Arctic Studies
- Oceanography
Background:
- Arctic sea ice extent has exhibited negative linear trends across all months between 1979 and 2006.
- Observed ice loss is attributed to natural variability within the ice-ocean-atmosphere system and increasing radiative forcing from greenhouse gases.
- Climate models show qualitative consistency with observed trends, supporting the role of anthropogenic factors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze linear trends in Arctic sea-ice extent from 1979 to 2006.
- To investigate the combined influence of natural variability and greenhouse gas-induced radiative forcing on Arctic ice loss.
- To assess the potential for rapid transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic and its broader climate implications.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of linear trends in monthly Arctic sea-ice extent data from 1979 to 2006.
- Comparison of observed trends with simulations from climate models.
- Evaluation of the coupled ice-ocean-atmosphere system dynamics.
Main Results:
- Consistent negative trends in Arctic sea-ice extent were observed for every month during the study period.
- The observed ice loss is consistent with a combination of natural climate variability and anthropogenic radiative forcing.
- Climate models qualitatively replicate the observed trends, though significant scatter exists among simulations regarding the timing of a seasonally ice-free Arctic.
Conclusions:
- Arctic sea ice is diminishing due to both natural fluctuations and rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
- A rapid transition to a seasonally ice-free Arctic is possible as ice thins, potentially leading to significant climate shifts.
- The loss of Arctic ice is expected to impact the Arctic's freshwater system, energy budget, and potentially alter mid-latitude weather patterns.
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