DNA analysis in predicting survival of irradiated patients with transitional cell carcinoma of bladder

A total of 115 patients with invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder underwent radical radiotherapy between 1975 and 1986 and were followed up until the end of 1990. Apart from routine clinical observations, flow cytometric DNA measurements made on fresh tumour material were available for analysis. Actuarial cancer-free survival controlling for response to treatment was analysed with the log-rank test, bivariate and multivariate analyses using Cox's stepwise regression model on probable prognostic factors. The overall actuarial 5-year cancer-free survival rate was 30%. Survival was significantly correlated with response to treatment: 59% for patients with complete regression and 5% for those with residual tumour. Prognostic factors that significantly correlated with death from cancer were advanced stage, large size, incomplete resection, ureteric obstruction, anaemia, carcinoma in situ grade 3 and occurrence of more than one aneuploid cell population. However, only 3 of these factors were of independent power in the multivariate analysis: stage, size and carcinoma in situ. Of 21 patients with a history of primary or secondary carcinoma in situ, 19 died from cancer during follow-up: 18 of the 21 patients had tumours that were aneuploid with more than one aneuploid cell population. It is concluded that curative radiotherapy can be successful only in patients with less advanced tumours assessed according to clinical stage and size, aneuploid tumours with not more than one aneuploid cell line, no carcinoma in situ, no ureteric obstruction, and in whom a complete transurethral resection of the exophytic tumour is possible.