Distinguishing microsite and competition processes in tree growth dynamics: an a priori spatial modeling approach

Spatially oriented studies have examined the role of competition on plant populations and communities but not the combined effects of microsite heterogeneity and competition. The aim of this study was threefold: first, to apply and test a common geostatistical tool (semivariograms) to disentangle competition and microsite effects; second, to assess the results of this methodology against a generalized early stand development model for tree populations; and third, to examine the role and timing of microsite and competition processes in early population stages. We mapped and measured annual relative growth rates of trees in three different-aged ponderosa pine stands in Patagonia, Chile. We tested the relative support of five a priori semivariogram-based hypotheses and showed that through stand development, many sites followed our expected sequence of semivariogram models. These translated to initial spatially random growth followed by microsite-dominated, mixed microsite and competition, and finally pure competition effects on growth. Our approach will have many and diverse applications wherever processes differ in the type of spatial pattern they exhibit as well as in spatial scale. We emphasize that this methodology works best when there is strong a priori support for the hypotheses being tested but the timing, strength, and occurrence of processes are not known.