Exploration of prediction models for caries risk assessment of the geriatric population

The purpose of this study was to demonstrate a method for establishing a model designed to predict the caries risk of elderly individuals. Twenty-three patients over the age of 65 and living in a semi-independent retirement center were examined; several variables were collected and analyzed for their ability to predict the development of new carious lesions. The analysis was performed using logistic regression where the proportion of new decay was used as the dependent variable. The model for prediction of combined coronal and root caries included the variables flow rate, gender, and root caries index. The proposed method has the advantages of easily collected data, individualized criteria, and the ability to order patients as to the relative risk of developing decay.