Inland subsurface water system role for coastal nitrogen load dynamics and abatement responses

We simulate and analyze long-term dynamics of coastal nitrogen (N) loading and the inland source changes and processes that may have determined its development over the past 60-year period and may govern its possible future responses to various N source management scenarios. With regard to processes, the results show that average basin-scale N delivery fractions to the coast may not be representative of the coastal impacts of either diffuse or point inland sources. The effects of inland source changes may be greatly redistributed in space-time and delayed by slow N transport and mass transfer processes in the subsurface water system of coastal catchments. Extrapolation of current N transport-attenuation conditions for quantification of future abatement effects may therefore be misleading if the extrapolation models do not realistically represent delayed long-term influences of slow subsurface processes. With regard to policy, the results show that and why national Swedish and international Baltic Sea region policies for coastal N load abatement may be difficult or impossible to achieve by inland source abatement only. Large mitigation of both point and diffuse sources may be necessary to achieve targeted coastal N load reductions fast and maintain them also in the long term.