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Related Experiment Videos

Predicting unknown species numbers using discovery curves.

Daniel P Bebber1, Francis H C Marriott, Kevin J Gaston

  • 1Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford, South Parks Road, Oxford, UK.

Proceedings. Biological Sciences
|April 26, 2007
PubMed
Summary
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Estimating total species numbers using species description patterns is unreliable. Unpredictable discovery rates create large errors, especially when species inventories are incomplete.

Area of Science:

  • Biodiversity Science
  • Taxonomy
  • Statistical Ecology

Background:

  • Estimating the total number of extant species is crucial for understanding biodiversity.
  • Extrapolation from temporal patterns of species descriptions is a common but potentially flawed method.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To provide a formal statistical approach for estimating total species numbers.
  • To assess the reliability of species accumulation curves in predicting total species diversity.

Main Methods:

  • Developed and applied a formal statistical method to analyze species description data.
  • Utilized global datasets for diverse taxonomic groups including birds, ants, plants, and gymnosperms.

Main Results:

  • Species inventory completeness strongly influences the accuracy of total species estimates.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Unpredictable variations in discovery processes significantly impact species accumulation curves.
  • Estimates are associated with very large margins of error unless inventories are nearly complete.

    • Conclusions:

    • Current methods relying on species accumulation curves are unreliable for estimating total species numbers.
    • The inherent unpredictability of species discovery limits the accuracy of such extrapolations.