Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jul 15, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Multipeaked probability distributions of recurrence times
1Max-Planck-Institut für molekulare Physiologie, Postfach 500247, 44202 Dortmund, Germany.
We discovered multipeaked recurrence time distributions in chaotic systems, challenging previous assumptions of monotonic decay. These peaks correspond to specific trajectory patterns, offering new insights into complex system dynamics.
Area of Science:
- Physics
- Nonlinear Dynamics
- Chaos Theory
Background:
- Previous studies on autonomous chaotic systems reported only monotonic decaying distributions for recurrence times.
- Existing models often simplify phase space, overlooking complex trajectory behaviors.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine probabilities of recurrence time within finite, physically meaningful phase space subsets.
- To investigate recurrence time distributions in three distinct autonomous chaotic systems.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of recurrence time probabilities in phase space subsets.
- Examination of three autonomous chaotic systems: three-peaked potential scattering, connected billiards, and Lorenz equations.
Main Results:
- Identified multipeaked probability distributions for recurrence times, deviating from expected monotonic decay.
- Observed that discrete peaks correspond to specific trajectory subsets, including those with integer loops.
- Found similarities between these distributions and those in driven stochastically resonant systems.
Conclusions:
- Autonomous chaotic systems can exhibit non-monotonic recurrence time distributions.
- The presence of discrete peaks highlights the importance of considering detailed trajectory structures within phase space.
- These findings necessitate a re-evaluation of recurrence time analysis in nondriven chaotic systems.
Related Concept Videos
Binomial Probability Distribution
The outcomes of a binomial experiment fit a binomial probability distribution. A statistical experiment can be classified as a binomial experiment if the following conditions are met:
There are a fixed number of trials. Think of trials as repetitions of an experiment. The letter n denotes the number of trials.
There are only two possible outcomes,...
Probability Distributions
A discrete probability distribution is a probability distribution of discrete random variables. It can be categorized into binomial probability distribution and Poisson probability...
Poisson Probability Distribution
The...
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
Probability in Statistics
An example of a simple event is a coin toss. The result of a coin toss is either a head or a tail. Here, head and tail are two simple events. These two simple events make up the sample space. Further, the probability of an event occurring falls within the range of 0 to 1. The probability of an...
Probability Histograms

