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Updated: Jul 14, 2026

Scanning Skeletal Remains for Bone Mineral Density in Forensic Contexts
Published on: January 29, 2018
The difference between hazard and risk in the relation between bone density and fracture
B E Christopher Nordin1, Peter A Baghurst, Andrew Metcalfe
1Institute of Medical and Veterinary Science, Frome Road, PO Box 14, Rundle Mall, Adelaide, 5000, South Australia, Australia. christopher.nordin@imvs.sa.gov.au
Abstract:
The relation between fracture risk and bone density is frequently defined in terms of a relative hazard derived from the Cox proportional hazards model. The relative hazard is a multiplicative factor representing the rise in hazard for each standard deviation fall in bone mineral density, which has a typical value of about 1.5. It is not generally appreciated that this hazard may only be equated with absolute risk when risk is very low; at higher risk and over long periods, it is inappropriate to apply a multiplicative factor to absolute risk because risk has a range of 0-1 and cannot exceed unity. Here, we show how "hazard" can be converted to risk and how misleading the current practice of equating relative hazards with relative risks can be.
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