SIMPLE estimate of the free energy change due to aliphatic mutations: superior predictions based on first principles

The bioinformatics revolution of the last decade has been instrumental in the development of empirical potentials to quantitatively estimate protein interactions for modeling and design. Although computationally efficient, these potentials hide most of the relevant thermodynamics in 5-to-40 parameters that are fitted against a large experimental database. Here, we revisit this longstanding problem and show that a careful consideration of the change in hydrophobicity, electrostatics, and configurational entropy between the folded and unfolded state of aliphatic point mutations predicts 20-30% less false positives and yields more accurate predictions than any published empirical energy function. This significant improvement is achieved with essentially no free parameters, validating past theoretical and experimental efforts to understand the thermodynamics of protein folding. Our first principle analysis strongly suggests that both the solute-solute van der Waals interactions in the folded state and the electrostatics free energy change of exposed aliphatic mutations are almost completely compensated by similar interactions operating in the unfolded ensemble. Not surprisingly, the problem of properly accounting for the solvent contribution to the free energy of polar and charged group mutations, as well as of mutations that disrupt the protein backbone remains open.