Global Fund grant programmes: an analysis of evaluation scores

Area of Science:

• Global Health
• Health Policy
• Program Evaluation

Background:

• The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria uses 2-year programme evaluations to inform funding decisions.
• Understanding factors influencing these evaluations is crucial for effective resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify correlations between Global Fund programme evaluation scores and various programme, health sector, and country characteristics.
• To provide insights for identifying and monitoring programmes potentially at risk.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of 134 Global Fund grants evaluated in 2006.
• Utilized ordered probit multivariate analysis to link evaluation scores with specific characteristics.

Main Results:

• Lower scores were associated with government agencies as principal recipients, large funding amounts, malaria focus, weak initial proposals, and KPMG evaluations.
• Higher scores linked to countries with more doctors per capita, high measles immunization rates, fewer health donors, high disease prevalence, and specific economic/political factors (e.g., lower income, small budget deficits, socialist history).

Conclusions:

• The study identifies associations, not causation, between characteristics and evaluation scores.
• Findings can help the Global Fund proactively identify at-risk programmes for targeted oversight and risk management, rather than influencing funding distribution.