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Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere general circulation model.

H Huebener1, U Cubasch, U Langematz

  • 1Institute for Meteorology, Freie Universität Berlin, Germany. huebener@met.fu-berlin.de

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|June 16, 2007
PubMed
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Global climate models simulate future climate change, revealing a warmer stratosphere with more frequent sudden stratospheric warmings due to increased wave forcing, impacting Northern Hemisphere storm tracks.

Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Atmospheric Physics
  • Oceanography

Background:

  • Climate models are crucial for understanding long-term climate change.
  • Representing the middle atmosphere is important for accurate climate simulations.
  • Previous models struggled to realistically simulate stratospheric phenomena.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate troposphere-stratosphere interactions in climate change simulations.
  • To assess the importance of middle atmosphere representation.
  • To project future climate changes, including stratospheric dynamics.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a global coupled climate model with ocean and stratosphere components.
  • Conducted long-term transient simulations from 1860 to 2100.

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  • Employed initial condition ensemble mode for robust results.

    • Main Results:

    • The model realistically simulates present-day climate (1961-2000).
    • Enhanced stratospheric resolution captures sudden stratospheric warmings, though underestimated.
    • Future projections show a warmer, more dynamic stratosphere with doubled warmings.

    Conclusions:

    • Increased greenhouse gases lead to a more active stratosphere.
    • Tropospheric wave forcing counteracts stratospheric cooling.
    • Climate change is projected to shift Northern Hemisphere storm tracks southward.