Climatic impacts on winter wheat in Oklahoma and potential applications to climatic and crop yield prediction

Climatic anomalies can pose severe challenges for farmers and resource managers. This is particularly significant with respect to gradually developing anomalies such as droughts. The impact of the 1995-1996 drought on the Oklahoma wheat crop, and the possibility that predictive information might have reduced some of the losses, is examined through a combined modeling approach using climatological data and a crop growth model that takes into account an extensive range of soil, climatic, and plant variables. The results show potential outcomes and also illustrate the point at which all possible climatic outcomes were predicting a significantly low wheat yield. Based on anecdotal evidence of the 1995-1996 drought, which suggested that farmers who planted at different times experienced different yields, the model was run assuming a variety of different planting dates. Results indicate that there is indeed a noticeable difference in the modeled wheat yields given different planting dates. The information regarding effectiveness of planting date can be used in conjunction with current long-range forecasts to develop improved predictions for the current growing season. This approach produces information regarding the likelihood of extreme precipitation events and the impact on crop yield, which can provide a powerful tool to farmers and others during periods of drought or other climatic extremes.