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Updated: Jul 14, 2026

Thermal Limits Determination for Zooplankton Using a Heat Block

Thermal Limits Determination for Zooplankton Using a Heat Block

Published on: November 18, 2022

Simulated and observed variability in ocean temperature and heat content.

K M Achutarao¹, M Ishii, B D Santer

¹Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. achutarao1@llnl.gov

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

|June 21, 2007

Summary

Climate models underestimate ocean heat content variability. Accounting for observational changes and volcanic eruptions reconciles model and observation discrepancies, refuting recent claims of ocean cooling.

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Area of Science:

Oceanography
Climate Science
Earth System Science

Background:

Observations reveal a significant rise in ocean heat content (OHC) during the late 20th century, alongside considerable interannual-to-decadal OHC variability.
Existing climate models can replicate general OHC trends but are often criticized for underestimating OHC variability.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate the discrepancy between observed and modeled ocean heat content variability.
To evaluate recent claims of a substantial OHC decrease in the upper ocean between 2003 and 2005.

Main Methods:

Analysis of 20th-century climate simulations from 13 distinct numerical models.
Incorporation of factors such as evolving observational coverage, instrumentation changes, and volcanic eruption impacts into model assessments.
Examination of the 2003-2005 period, focusing on the influence of the Argo float observing system.

Main Results:

The study demonstrates that discrepancies in OHC variability between models and observations are largely resolved by accounting for observational system changes and volcanic forcing.
The findings do not support the assertion of a significant global ocean heat content decrease between 2003 and 2005.
A notable shift in the observing system, specifically the deployment of Argo floats, is identified as a key factor in explaining the perceived 2003-2005 cooling, by mitigating a prior warm bias.

Conclusions:

Reconciling climate model simulations with observational data requires careful consideration of historical changes in ocean monitoring and external climate drivers like volcanic activity.
The apparent short-term ocean cooling from 2003-2005 is primarily an artifact of improved observational techniques rather than a genuine climate signal.