Preliminary evaluation of diagnostic tests for avian influenza using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Method in an emergency surveillance
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Published on: August 2, 2011
Takehisa Yamamoto1, Toshiyuki Tsutsui, Akiko Nishiguchi
1Epidemiological Research Team, National Institute of Animal Health, Kannondai, Ibaraki-ken, Japan.
Abstract:
In June 2005, an outbreak of avian influenza (AI) caused by a low pathogenic H5N2 virus was identified in Japan. A serological surveillance was conducted because the infected chickens did not show any clinical signs. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method was used to evaluate the performances of serological HI and AGP tests because there was not enough time when the surveillance was initiated to conduct a test evaluation. The sensitivity of the AGP test (0.67) was lower than that of the HI test (0.99), while the specificities were high for both tests (0.96 for AGP and 0.90 for HI). Based on the low sensitivity of the AGP test, the HI test was used for primary screening in later stages of the epidemic.
Insights
In 2005, Japan identified an avian influenza (AI) H5N2 outbreak. The Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) test showed higher sensitivity than the Agar Gel Precipitation (AGP) test for serological surveillance.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Medicine
- Epidemiology
- Immunology
Background:
- An avian influenza (AI) H5N2 outbreak occurred in Japan in June 2005.
- The low pathogenic nature of the virus meant infected chickens showed no clinical signs, necessitating serological surveillance.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the diagnostic performance of serological tests for avian influenza surveillance.
- To compare the sensitivity and specificity of the Hemagglutination Inhibition (HI) and Agar Gel Precipitation (AGP) tests.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for test performance evaluation.
- Assessed sensitivity and specificity of HI and AGP tests using field data from the AI outbreak.
Main Results:
- The HI test demonstrated high sensitivity (0.99) and good specificity (0.90).
- The AGP test had lower sensitivity (0.67) but high specificity (0.96).
- The HI test proved more effective for primary screening due to its superior sensitivity.
Conclusions:
- The HI test is recommended for primary screening in avian influenza surveillance due to its high sensitivity.
- The AGP test, while specific, may miss infected cases due to its lower sensitivity.
- Accurate diagnostic test selection is crucial for effective disease outbreak management.
