[Current studies on the progression of coronary calcification]

The quantification of coronary calcification facilitates improved prediction of cardiovascular diseases, in particular in persons with intermediate risk. The importance of serial measurement of coronary calcium in one to two-year intervals for evaluating the course of the disease and therapeutic monitoring after risk modification is unclear. The precise quantification of the progression of arteriosclerosis could contribute to the non-invasive detection of the chronic, often subclinical development of coronary heart disease at an asymptomatic stage of the disease, long before an irreversible clinical event in the pathogenetic cascade, such as sudden cardiac death or myocardial infarction, occurs. An important prerequisite for evaluating changes in the coronary calcium load is detailed knowledge of reproducibility or variability. In addition to a rapid image acquisition time and the use of calibration phantoms, low heart rate and breathing variability, image acquisition in the late systole, overlapping layers (at the expense of radiation dose) and optimized analysis algorithms also contribute to improvement in reproducibility. The limits of variability however are, above all, dependent upon the calcium load itself. Reproducibility is on the average about 10% and thus lies below the highest expected progression, which is about 10-50% per year, depending upon the initial value and pre-existing conditions Only a few studies have identified calcium score progression as an independent predictor for later events. In several studies, calcium score progression was related to the rate of events, but was not independent of other variables. The most important determinant appears to be the calcium score itself. Other relevant determinants are age, gender, diabetes, obesity and renal failure. Whether lipid values significantly influence the progression has not been clarified.

Further studies on the natural course of coronary heart disease, particularly in the early disease stages, the determinants of progression and the extent to which the calcification progress can be modified are necessary to assess the benefit of serial score measurement for risk stratification. Until then, the repeated radiation exposure cannot be recommended outside of clinical studies.