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Residence-linked human plague in New Mexico: a habitat-suitability model

Rebecca J Eisen1, Pamela J Reynolds, Paul Ettestad

  • 1Division of Vector-Borne Infectious Diseases, National Center for Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, P.O. Box 2087, Fort Collins, Colorado 80522, USA. dyn2@cdc.gov

The American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
|July 11, 2007
PubMed

Insights

A new plague risk map for New Mexico identifies areas with significant human exposure risk to Yersinia pestis. This GIS-based model helps focus public health resources on less than 20% of the state for effective plague surveillance and control.

Area of Science:

  • Veterinary Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

  • Yersinia pestis, the bacterium causing plague, is endemic in fleas and mammals across the western US.
  • Human plague cases are rare but surveillance is costly, leading some health departments to hesitate on prevention activities.
  • New Mexico reports over half of US human plague cases, necessitating targeted resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a fine-resolution human plague risk map for New Mexico.
  • To aid local health departments in targeting limited public health resources for plague surveillance and control.

Main Methods:

  • A GIS-based model was created incorporating landscape features.
  • Key features included elevation (nonlinear relationship), distance to water, and distance to specific ecotones.
  • The model's accuracy was evaluated.

Main Results:

  • The model achieved approximately 80% overall accuracy.
  • 17.25% of New Mexico was classified as posing a significant risk for human Yersinia pestis exposure.
  • The findings suggest focusing surveillance and control efforts on less than 20% of the state.

Conclusions:

  • A GIS-based model can effectively identify high-risk areas for human plague exposure.
  • Targeted surveillance and control strategies can be implemented in specific regions, optimizing resource allocation.
  • This approach aids in managing the public health threat of Yersinia pestis in endemic areas.

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