Enforcement authority and vegetation change at Kumbhalgarh wildlife sanctuary, Rajasthan, India

Land cover change in protected areas is often associated with human use, especially illicit extraction, but the direction and spatial distribution of such effects and their drivers are poorly understood. We analyze and explain the spatial distribution of vegetation change at the Kumbhalgarh Wildlife Sanctuary in the Aravalli range of Rajasthan, India using remotely sensed data and observation of conservation institutions. Two satellite images are examined in time series over the 13 years following the founding of the sanctuary through a cross-tabulation technique of dominant classes of vegetation density. The resulting change trajectories are compared for their relative distance to high-traffic forest entrance points for local users. The results show 28% of the study area undergoing change, though in multiple trajectories, with both increasing and decreasing density of vegetation in discrete patches. Areas of change are shown to be closer to entrance points than areas experiencing no change. The patchiness of change results from complex issues in local enforcement authority for middle and lower-level officials in Forest Department bureaucracy, leading to further questions about the efficacy and impact of use restrictions in Protected Areas.