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Related Experiment Videos

Guiding resource allocations based on terrorism risk.

Henry H Willis1

  • 1RAND Corporation, 201 North Craig Street, Suite 102, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, USA. hwillis@rand.org

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|July 21, 2007
PubMed
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The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) provides counter-terrorism funding. While generally consistent with other risk management, some UASI allocations fund areas with lower terrorism risk than typically tolerated.

Area of Science:

  • Risk Management
  • Homeland Security
  • Terrorism Preparedness

Background:

  • Establishing tolerable risk levels is crucial for societal decisions.
  • The Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) is a Department of Homeland Security (DHS) grant program enhancing urban security and preparedness.
  • Resource allocation for risk management often relies on risk-based principles.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To compare estimates of terrorism risk in UASI-funded urban areas with other federal risk management decisions.
  • To evaluate the consistency of UASI funding allocations with established risk tolerance levels.
  • To identify potential discrepancies in terrorism risk assessment and resource allocation.

Main Methods:

  • Reviewing definitions of terrorism risk and rationales for risk-based resource allocation.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Estimating terrorism risk in urban areas that received UASI funding in 2004.
  • Comparing these estimates to levels tolerated in other federal risk management contexts.

    • Main Results:

    • UASI allocations generally align with other federal risk management decisions.
    • Terrorism risk in several funded cities appears below commonly tolerated levels in other contexts.
    • Discrepancies may arise from risk estimation methods or comparison frameworks.

    Conclusions:

    • While UASI funding appears broadly consistent with federal risk management, specific allocations warrant further scrutiny.
    • The study highlights the importance of explicit comparisons to other risk management decisions when discussing resource allocation.
    • Further discussion is needed on risk tolerance and its application in counter-terrorism funding decisions, even with potential underestimation of risks.