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Association of parameter, software, and hardware variation with large-scale behavior across 57,000 climate models
Christopher G Knight1, Sylvia H E Knight, Neil Massey
1Manchester Interdisciplinary Biocentre, University of Manchester, 131 Princess Street, Manchester M1 7DN, United Kingdom.
Summary
Climate model simulations reveal that parameter variations significantly impact climate sensitivity. A small subset of parameters, like the cloud entrainment coefficient, drives most of this variation, not hardware or software changes.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Computational Modeling
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Complex spatial models are crucial for predicting climate response to greenhouse gas emissions.
- Parameter variations within plausible bounds can significantly influence climate model behavior.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the impact of parameter, initial condition, hardware, and software variations on climate model behavior.
- To identify key parameters driving variations in climate sensitivity.
Main Methods:
- An ensemble of over 57,000 climate model runs was generated.
- Ten parameters, initial conditions, hardware, and software were systematically varied.
- Model outputs were analyzed to determine effects on equilibrium climate sensitivity.
Main Results:
- Parameter variations, hardware, and software effects are detectable, complex, and interacting.
- A small subset of parameters accounts for most of the variation in climate sensitivity.
- The cloud entrainment coefficient alone explains 30% of climate sensitivity variation.
Conclusions:
- Parameter variation is the dominant driver of climate model behavior compared to hardware and software.
- Understanding key parameter influences is vital for designing and interpreting climate modeling experiments.
- The entrainment coefficient in clouds is a critical parameter influencing climate sensitivity.
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