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Shrink and share: humanity's present and future Ecological Footprint
Justin Kitzes1, Mathis Wackernagel, Jonathan Loh
1Global Footprint Network, 1050 Warfield Ave, Oakland, CA 94610, USA. justin@footprintnetwork.org
Summary
Humanity exceeds Earth's biocapacity, demanding 20% more resources than regenerated in 2002. Achieving sustainability requires managing consumption and enhancing ecosystem productivity to reverse this overshoot.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecological Economics
- Global Sustainability Studies
Background:
- Global development goals recognize sustainability's importance, yet the economy exceeds nature's capacity.
- Humanity's demand for ecosystem goods and services surpassed Earth's regenerative ability in 2002.
- This overshoot signifies a critical failure to meet minimum sustainability conditions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the current state of global resource demand versus ecosystem supply.
- To propose and discuss potential future scenarios for human demand and ecosystem regeneration.
- To identify key strategies for achieving a sustainable global economy.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Ecological Footprint as a quantitative accounting tool.
- Analyzed global demand for ecosystem goods and services against Earth's biocapacity.
- Modeled three distinct future scenarios based on consumption and productivity trends.
Main Results:
- In 2002, global ecological demand exceeded Earth's biocapacity by over 20%.
- The study outlines three potential future pathways for human ecological impact.
- Current economic activity is fundamentally unsustainable, operating in a state of overshoot.
Conclusions:
- Transitioning to sustainability necessitates significant management of food, fiber, and energy consumption.
- Enhancing the productivity of natural and agricultural ecosystems is crucial for recovery.
- Reversing ecological overshoot requires a paradigm shift in resource management and consumption patterns.
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