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Regression analysis of a disease onset distribution using diagnosis data
Jessica G Young1, Nicholas P Jewell, Steven J Samuels
1Division of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, 140 Warren Hall 7360, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. jgerald@berkeley.edu
We evaluated statistical methods for estimating disease onset, comparing a two-step approach to existing maximum likelihood methods. The two-step estimator is simpler and more robust when assumptions about disease onset distributions fail.
Area of Science:
- Biostatistics
- Epidemiology
- Survival Analysis
Background:
- Estimating disease onset is complex, especially with right-censored diagnosis times and current status data.
- Existing maximum likelihood methods (Dunson and Baird, 2001) rely on a monotonicity assumption for diagnosis and onset distributions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and evaluate a computationally simpler two-step estimator for disease onset.
- To compare the performance of the new estimator against existing methods, including one that ignores diagnosis data.
Main Methods:
- Developed a two-step estimator, extending the work of van der Laan et al. (1997).
- Conducted a simulation study comparing the two-step estimator, Dunson and Baird's method, and a standard current status analysis.
- Applied methods to a real-world study on uterine fibroids and dioxin exposure.
Main Results:
- The Dunson and Baird estimator performed better when the monotonicity assumption held.
- The two-step estimator was superior when the monotonicity assumption failed.
- The current status estimator showed minimal precision loss compared to the two-step method but requires more data.
Conclusions:
- The proposed two-step estimator offers a robust and computationally efficient alternative for disease onset estimation, particularly when distributional assumptions are violated.
- In the uterine fibroids and dioxin exposure study, the two-step and current status estimators found no significant association, with the two-step method providing the lowest variance estimate for relative hazard.
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