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Updated: Jul 13, 2026

Speciation and Bioavailability Measurements of Environmental Plutonium Using Diffusion in Thin Films
Published on: November 9, 2015
Uncertainties analysis for the plutonium dosimetry model, doses-2005, using Mayak bioassay data.
John D Bess1, Melinda P Krahenbuhl, Scott C Miller
1Center for Excellence in Nuclear Technology, Engineering, and Research (CENTER), 50 So. Central Campus Drive, Rm 1206, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT 84112, USA.
Radiation dose estimates for Mayak workers using the Doses-2005 model have significant uncertainties, averaging 100% for yearly organ doses. Improving urine bioassay measurements is key to reducing these uncertainties.
Area of Science:
- Radiation Dosimetry
- Occupational Health
- Nuclear Medicine
Background:
- The Doses-2005 model estimates radiation doses for Mayak workers exposed to plutonium.
- Urine bioassay measurements are used to assign surrogate doses to a portion of these workers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify and qualify uncertainties in radiation dose estimates from the Doses-2005 model.
- To identify the primary sources contributing to dose estimation uncertainties.
Main Methods:
- Employed Monte Carlo methods and perturbation theory to analyze uncertainties.
- Investigated uncertainties related to urine bioassay, model parameters, and organ reference masses.
Main Results:
- Average yearly organ dose uncertainty was approximately 100%.
- Key uncertainty sources: urine bioassay (45%), Doses-2005 parameters (29%), and organ masses (26%).
- Transportability classification and smoking status also introduced uncertainties.
Conclusions:
- Improving urine bioassay measurement techniques offers the most significant potential for reducing overall dose uncertainties.
- Further model refinement and incorporation of autopsy data could enhance the Doses-2005 model's accuracy.
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