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Published on: June 5, 2020
Noninvasive models to predict liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B
Beom Kyung Kim1, Sung Ae Kim, Young Nyun Park
1Department of Internal Medicine, Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul, Korea.
Insights
The novel Age-Spleen-Platelet Ratio Index (ASPRI) accurately predicts liver cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. This noninvasive screening tool shows potential to reduce the need for liver biopsies.
Area of Science:
- Hepatology
- Diagnostic Accuracy
- Biomarker Development
Background:
- Noninvasive models for predicting liver cirrhosis in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) are limited.
- Accurate prediction of cirrhosis is crucial for CHB management and preventing complications.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of two novel noninvasive models: spleen-platelet ratio index (SPRI) and age-spleen-platelet ratio index (ASPRI).
- To compare SPRI and ASPRI with existing models like aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), age-platelet index (API), and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) for predicting liver histology in CHB patients.
Main Methods:
- Retrospective study of 346 treatment-naïve CHB patients.
- Comparison of AAR, API, APRI, SPRI, and ASPRI against liver histology.
- Analysis of diagnostic accuracy using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.
Main Results:
- All five tested models (AAR, APRI, SPRI, API, ASPRI) showed significant correlation with liver fibrosis stage (P<0.001).
- ASPRI demonstrated the highest diagnostic accuracy for predicting cirrhosis, with an area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of 0.893.
- ASPRI >12 correctly identified cirrhosis in 10.1% of patients (96.3% positive predictive value), while ASPRI <5 excluded cirrhosis in 34.7% (100% negative predictive value).
Conclusions:
- ASPRI is an accurate noninvasive biomarker for predicting liver cirrhosis in CHB patients.
- Screening CHB patients with ASPRI has the potential to significantly reduce the number of liver biopsies required.
- ASPRI offers a promising tool for risk stratification and clinical decision-making in CHB management.
Objectives:
Few noninvasive models of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) to predict liver cirrhosis have been studied. The aim of the current study is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of two simple novel models of spleen-platelet ratio index (SPRI) and age-spleen-platelet ratio index (ASPRI) in patients with CHB.
Patients And Methods:
A total of 346 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB were retrospectively studied. The aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), age-platelet index (API), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), SPRI, and ASPRI were compared with liver histology.
Results:
AAR, APRI, SPRI, API, and ASPRI correlated significantly to fibrosis stage (all P<0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of ASPRI was the highest among five tests for prediction of cirrhosis (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC=0.893). Using a cutoff score of ASPRI>12, the presence of cirrhosis could be correctly identified with a high accuracy (96.3% positive predictive value) in 35 (10.1%) of 346 patients. Similarly, using a cutoff of <5, the presence of cirrhosis could be totally excluded with 100% of negative predictive value in 120 (34.7%) of 346 patients.
Conclusion:
ASPRI was accurate in predicting cirrhosis and screening with ASPRI has the potential to reduce the number of liver biopsies in CHB patients.
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