Age, oestradiol and blastocysts can predict success in natural cycle IVF-embryo transfer

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of maternal age and oestradiol concentrations on blastocyst development and live birth rates in natural cycle IVF-embryo transfer. This observational study included 397 natural cycles with IVF embryo transfer for female infertility with embryo transfer on day 5. The cycles were divided into two groups according to the woman's age (<39 and > or = 39 years of age), and into two groups according to oestradiol concentrations on the day of human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) administration (0.4-0.49 nmol/l and 0.5-1.2 nmol/l). Comparison between the cycles in younger versus older age groups showed significant differences in blastocyst development rate, live birth rate per embryo transfer and live birth rate per cycle (55 versus 29%, 23 versus 3% and 13 versus 2% respectively) (P < 0.001). Comparison between cycles with lower versus higher oestradiol concentrations showed no significant differences in blastocyst development rate, live birth rate per embryo transfer and live birth rate per cycle (47 versus 49%, 18 versus 18%, and 11 versus 10% respectively). Advanced maternal age negatively predicts the success of natural cycle IVF, while low oestradiol concentrations on the day of HCG administration (ultrasound criteria fulfilled) do not negatively predict blastocyst development and success of natural cycle IVF.