[The prospects for the appearance of pleural mesothelioma in Italy]

The mortality data of Italian males and females due to malignant tumour of the pleura, collected over a period of 7 years, from 1976 to 1985, showed a continuous, rectilinear type, increase. The increase in the quantity of asbestos that was processed from 1945 to 1979 was also rectilinear. On the basis of the well known relationship between asbestos and mortality due to mesothelioma, an extremely high correlation coefficient was obtained between quantity of asbestos processed per year and number of deaths due to malignant tumour of the pleura 25 years later. Extrapolating to the year 2000 on the basis of this relationship, it can be foreseen that at that time the deaths due to malignant tumour of the pleura in Italy will be about 1200 per year. It is recommended to apply a correction factor to this figure in order to obtain the number of true cases of mesothelioma, which are probably about 70% of the deaths attributed to tumour of the pleura.