Growth around puberty as predictor of adult obesity

To contribute to the early risk identification of adult obesity, the anthropometric development in the first 23 years of life as a potential predictor for adult obesity was assessed. To identify the period (7-11 years, 11-16 years and 16-23 years) and type of anthropometric measure difference (weight, height and body mass index (BMI) gains) accounting for the best prediction of obesity at 33 years.

A total of 4952 members of the 1958 British birth cohort with full information on anthropometric measures. Follow-up examinations at 7, 11, 16, 23 and 33 years were analyzed with receiver-operating characteristics (ROCs).

Overall 505 cohort members (10.2%) were obese at 33 years. BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years were the best-observed predictors for obesity at 33 years with an area under the ROC curve of 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69; 0.74) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71; 0.76), respectively. Height gain failed as a significant predictor at any lifetime interval. BMI gain between 7 and 11 years yielded a positive predictive value of 20% (95% CI: 19; 21) compared to 19% (95% CI: 18; 20) for weight gain. The prediction of BMI and weight gains between 7 and 11 years seemed to be unrelated to sex and the onset of puberty.

High weight or BMI gain from 7 to 11 years should be considered as risk factor of later obesity. These predictors combined with others might allow for targeting preventive measures at a high-risk sub-population.