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Reservoir interactions and disease emergence
1Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Yale University School of Medicine, New Haven, CT 06520, USA. timothy@reluga.org
Theoretical Population Biology
|August 28, 2007
Summary
Frequent contact with animal reservoirs increases the risk of emerging infectious diseases. Even with limited adaptation, ongoing interactions can facilitate pathogen emergence and sustained human transmission.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Evolutionary Biology
- Disease Ecology
Background:
- Animal populations serve as reservoirs for emerging infectious diseases.
- Pathogen emergence in humans requires a basic reproduction number (R0) greater than 1 for self-sustaining transmission.
- Novel pathogens may initially have an R0 less than 1 due to lack of adaptation to the human host.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate how ongoing interactions between human and animal reservoir populations influence the probability of pathogen emergence.
- To extend existing models of pathogen evolution by incorporating reservoir dynamics.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a stepping-stone model of pathogen evolution.
- Incorporated reservoir interactions into the model to simulate disease emergence dynamics.
- Analyzed the impact of varying frequencies of human-reservoir contact on adaptation and emergence probability.
Main Results:
- Infrequent reservoir interactions do not significantly alter disease emergence probability.
- Moderately frequent interactions can promote pathogen emergence by aiding adaptation to humans.
- Frequent interactions facilitate emergence even with minimal pathogen adaptation to the human host.
Conclusions:
- Perpetuated contact between humans and animal reservoirs, often driven by ecological or environmental changes, significantly elevates the risk of emerging infectious diseases.
- Understanding the frequency and nature of human-animal contact is crucial for predicting and mitigating disease emergence.
- Interventions aimed at reducing human-reservoir contact may be effective in preventing future pandemics.
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