Independent predictors for early and midterm mortality after thoracic surgery

The purpose of the present study was to determine independent predictors for early and midterm mortality for the whole context of thoracic surgery.

We studied 1453 consecutive patients who underwent thoracic surgery between 2002 and 2005. Operations included lung resections (n = 504), mediastinal (n = 468), pleural and pericardial (n = 226), esophageal (n = 83), chest wall (n = 85), tracheal (n = 50) and other procedures (n = 37). Midterm survival data (mean follow-up 2.0 +/- 1.1 years) were obtained from the National Death Index. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess in-hospital mortality. Independent predictors for midterm mortality were determined by multivariate Cox regression analysis.

There were 47 (3.2 %) in-hospital and 312 (21.5 %) late deaths. Independent predictors for in-hospital mortality included Zubrod score (OR 2.72, P < 0.001), ASA score (OR 3.42, P < 0.001), pneumonectomy (OR 20.71, P = 0.001) and no history of cerebrovascular events (OR 0.27, P = 0.011). Independent predictors for midterm mortality included age (HR 1.03, P < 0.001), weight loss (HR 1.57, P = 0.005), Zubrod score (HR 1.47, P < 0.001), primary lung cancer (HR 1.98 P < 0.001), intrathoracic extrapulmonary metastases (HR 2.78, P < 0.001), primary chest wall tumor (HR 0.14, P = 0.008), diabetes requiring insulin (HR 1.71, P = 0.017), no preoperative renal failure (HR 0.57, P = 0.004), no comorbidities (HR 0.54, P = 0.009), ASA score (HR 1.69, P < 0.001), postoperative radiation treatment (HR 1.90, P = 0.016), pneumonectomy (HR 2.18, P = 0.040), reoperation for bleeding and/or postoperative transfusion (HR 3.10, P = 0.027) and postoperative pulmonary complications (HR 1.89, P = 0.013).

We determined independent predictors for in-hospital and midterm mortality for the whole context of thoracic surgery. Zubrod and ASA scores affect both early and midterm mortality.